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  1. Henry Sherrell
    Henry Sherrell September 12, 2013 at 3:36 pm

    Good analysis. That OECD report is always excellent. The fiscal impact in Chapter three is particularly good this year.

    Net migration rates were abnormally high in 2008-10 because of student visa settings. These have been substantially revised in 2011-12. However, the latest forecasts [pdf] for net migration is between 220-250,000 per year for the next 1-4 years, which is well above the last estimate in the Inter-Generational Report (180,000). This probably means another debate about ‘big Australia’ when IGR4 comes out.

    Also, the role of New Zealand migration is interesting in relation to development. The 2011 census shows big pockets of growth in Samoan, Tongan and Maori migration, which has accelerated since the turn of the century. Basically the only immigration pathway for this to occur is through New Zealand citizenship and temporary visa grants. This is supported by the DIAC figures on New Zealand migration, with about ~40,000 New Zealand citizens born outside of New Zealand currently living in Australia as ‘temporary migrants’. Scott Morrison has raised this as an issue in the past so perhaps some policy changes are in the wings which may impact any development impact this migration is having.

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