Pacific Buzz (December 19): 2012 in review

Elections and politics

In 2012, six Pacific countries joined over one hundred others around the globe in holding parliamentary or presidential elections. There is a new government elect in Palau where former president Tommy Remengesau Jr. and Antonio Bells have been declared as president and vice president respectively. Voters in Palau rejected incumbent president, Johnson Toribiong, over corruption allegations. In Vanuatu, Sato Kilman returned as prime minister, leading a patchwork coalition. The Kilman government was formed amidst calls for electoral reform. The newly elected governor of American Samoa, Togiola Tulafono, also called for reforms. In Guam, a recount of the ballots confirmed the preliminary results. In Timor Leste, Xanana Gusmao’s party was returned on a plurality of the vote, and there was a brief upsurge in violence after the Fretilin party was excluded from the governing coalition.

Results for women candidates throughout the region were discouraging. Trailblazers such as Dame Carol Kidu retired from PNG politics, and only 3 women (out of 115 female candidates) were elected. Women currently make up around 5 per cent of parliamentarians across the Pacific. PNG parliamentarians rejected a proposed bill to set aside 22 seats for women.

Papua New Guinea’s parliament was dissolved in late May in advance of a 23 June election, leading to hopes of a resolution following months of political and legal wrangling. Belden Namah had suggested a 12-month delay, but the Electoral Commissioner proceeded as planned. Parliamentary attempts to curtail the judiciary were met by public outcry, most notably from UPNG students whose ‘Occupy Waigani’ campaign culminated in a boisterous but peaceful march. In all, 46 parties fielded 3,435 candidates to contest 111 seats in an election marked by irregularities and large financial payouts.

Fiji’s Constitutional Commission began consultations prior to presenting a draft constitution in January 2013, but was warned not to politicise the process after its chair called for people to be heard directly. It was confirmed that members of the military must resign in order to contest the elections and that race-based parties will be ineligible. The Great Council of Chiefs was also formally abolished.

In Tonga, a protracted motion of no confidence in the prime minister, Lord Tu’ivakano, took over three months to be resolved following the conclusion of parliamentary debate on the 2012-13 budget. Three ministers resigned amidst controversy over cabinet reshuffles, but the PM and his cabinet survived the crisis.

The rise of social media was the subject of widespread commentary, especially in the run-up to the PNG elections. Its impact was noticeable, but decidedly mixed. The O’Neill government also came under fire for ‘monitoring’ text messages, emails and comments posted on Facebook. Vanuatu’s new national network was used to present a landmark public forum that brought Vanuatu’s prime minister and leader of the opposition face to face with the nation.

Geopolitics and security

2012 was the year when global powers signalled a re-found understanding of the strategic importance of Pacific island states after decades of neglect, and came courting.

The US, China and Russia all spoke of their deeper engagement with the Pacific. Beyond the rhetoric, some strong symbolism was on display: for the first time a US secretary of state attended the Pacific Islands Forum. The USA also committed the bulk of its warships into the Pacific theatre and has begun stationing a marine force in Darwin, Australia. This complements its military buildup in Guam in the north Pacific.

Russia used its hosting of the APEC summit in Vladivostok to declare that it too is a Pacific power, while China continued to exert strong influence through its large diplomatic presence and aid program.

Traditional powers like Australia and New Zealand continue to be influential, but their influence in the region is under challenge. In May, Vanuatu expelled the Australia Federal Police (AFP) and opened closer relations with Indonesia, Russia and Fiji. Australia recruited PNG and Nauru to implement its off-shore asylum seeker policy. The annual Pacific Debate demonstrated island allegiances can no longer be taken for granted and Pacific nations are taking a more flexible and assertive approach to their foreign policy.

The PNG constitutional crisis, which had everyone on edge for six months, and some small-scale disturbances in Timor-Leste and the Solomon Islands were blights on a largely benign Pacific security landscape. Fiji remains under a military government but progress was made towards a new constitution and planned elections in 2014. West Papua continued to be the most serious conflict zone in the Pacific region, with ongoing reports of killings, torture and abuse by Indonesian security forces.

The RAMSI mission in the Solomon Islands announced it was starting to withdraw, leaving its ten year peacekeeping mission in the hands of police, while in Timor Leste, international peacekeepers will also start to withdraw next year.

Economics: Melanesia booming and Pacific Futures

Melanesia led the way in economic growth in the Pacific, with PNG, Timor, Solomon Islands and Vanuatu all doing well in terms of expanding their GDP. Fiji and the Micronesian and Polynesian countries of the Pacific did not fare as well, with the Tonga Central Bank Governor warning of a bleak economic future.

Resource-rich PNG, Timor Leste and Solomon Islands continued to struggle to translate economic growth into substantial development gains. Timor Leste grappled with serious problems of tax evasion. Commentators in PNG spoke of a lost decade, and the head of the country’s anti corruption body described Australia as the Cayman Islands for PNG suggesting Australian authorities weren’t doing enough to stop the laundering of corrupt proceeds.

The World Bank’s Pacific Futures report spoke what was once the unspeakable, with the Bank acknowledging for the first time that some Pacific island economies might simply never be viable without aid and remittances.

Treading water on labour mobility

Australia made its pilot seasonal worker programme permanent on July 1, 2012. Unfortunately, numbers have remained low with a cap of 2,600 Pacific island workers a year. The equivalent New Zealand scheme continues to do much better, taking about 7,000 workers a year. Analysis by Devpolicy pointed to conflicting government policies in Australia, which give backpackers an incentive to work on farms, and the prevalence of illegal labour as the underlying reasons for the poor performance of the Australian scheme. Unfortunately, the Australian government has yet to release its own evaluation of the pilot seasonal worker program. The bright spots for the year were the extension of the Australian scheme to new sectors (cotton, cane, seasonal tourism, aquaculture) – perhaps they will do better – and a new endorsement of the seasonal worker scheme by the Australian opposition, which opposed it earlier.

Delayed but increasing aid

Two of the Pacific’s major donors, Australia and New Zealand, pushed back their targets for increasing aid this year. While these delays will impact the Pacific, both donors pledged that planned increases would take place. Australia has projected an expansion of aid spending to about AUD 1.6 billion by 2015-16, an increase of about AUD 400 million. 2012-13 increases showed only slight changes at the country level, with a notable exception of a doubling of aid to Fiji. New Zealand also plans to increase aid spending over the medium-term to NZD 600 million, up from NZD 535 million in 2012. Other considerable funding announcements were Australia’s AUD 330 million gender equality package and commitment of AUD 58 million to climate finance over four years. New Zealand committed NZD 50 million to improving fisheries management and funding three years of secondary schooling for all students in Samoa.