Abstract:

This paper uses comprehensive tax and visa records to examine the impact of seasonal work visas on the earnings of incumbent farm workers in the context of Australia’s Seasonal Worker Program (SWP). Using a triple-difference approach to exploit differences in earnings growth across different low-skilled occupations within localities, we find no convincing evidence that SWP visas reduced farm worker earnings. Our main null result is robust to alternative specifications and approaches, including regional and national (skill-cell) difference-in-differences, and is consistent with the long-term population decline in agricultural regions and a growing inability or unwillingness of the domestic workforce to fill short-term agricultural roles.