Abstract:

In this paper we report on analysis of newly-released election results data from Papua New Guinea. The data comes from the 2022 general election and form part of a dataset that stretches back to 1972. We use the data to assess different aspects of electoral politics. Amongst other findings, we identify concerning high voter turnout, particularly in the Highlands, whilst at the same time finding that turnout was surprisingly low in some other Highlands electorates.

We put the Hegarty Rule – the relationship between candidate numbers and incumbent performance – to the test, demonstrating a robust relationship between the two variables. We also test whether the Hegarty rule could have been used in advance to predict results in the 2017 and 2022 elections. In 2017, in particular, it performed well. Finally, we look at the long-run relationship between ethnolinguistic fragmentation and candidate numbers. We find a relationship, although it only explains a small share of the overall variation in candidate numbers across the country.