Comments

Thanks Domyal for your comment. Firstly, the ENP was calculated with the data that is available, election results which are thankfully available. Parliamentary MP party affiliation since 2017 is taken from the PNG MP Database. Second, you're right in that party loyalties do not stem from policy or ideology but rather from the charisma, resources, and popularity of party leaders. This makes PNG's party system weak and is an inherent feature of clientelist democracies, see here. It is difficult to measure the popularity of party leaders but we can infer this afterwards when MPs switch.

Great Presentation! Just one thought here. The measuring model (ENP) of political fragmentation maybe limited in capturing key elements of PNG politics -election ENP and parliamentary seats ENP to project a weighting on fragmentation. Political fragmentation in PNG is dynamic over the last 15 years, never was it consistent or stable in party alignment by MPs after election. It may be different in comparison to other country’s ENP. It would be good to identify factors influencing the PNG political fragmentation. One view is that it is not driven by national development policy platforms, rather by individualism, for wealth and enterprise, through ethnic induced and regionalism practice. If ENP model can be flexible to accommodate or generate informative analysis on factors influencing fragmentation would be ideal.

Thanks Russel for your comment. Your blog (and UPNG presentation) was interesting. PNG's election outcomes had become increasingly fragmented leading into and including 2002, and I agree that this was likely a reason for inviting the largest party to form government - it's also why post-elections, the ruling party grows even larger as independents and small parties join it. Michael has written at length on this. I also think the fall in ENP since 2002 is an LPV effect reflecting the strategic voting on the part of voters. It is likely, generally, that while 1st preference votes reflect voters' "true" preference, 2nd and 3rd preferences are likely used to "hedge their bets" by voting for the candidate who is most likely to win. Competitive candidates are more often than not, members of large, strong parties. And as you know, most elections go into consecutive rounds, which favour the chances of these candidates, including an increase in incumbent success after leading on first preferences - this rose from 35% in 2007 to 63% in 2022. If this is true, I can certainly argue that it is, then the strategic voting brought about by the LPV system has made electoral and parliamentary politics less fragmented, something that Terence Wood, Michael and I missed in our discussion paper that reviewed the LPV system.

Thanks Ezra for your comment. You're correct in saying that the fortunes and decline of many (if not all) of PNG's successful parties have been dependent on big men, something studied at length by many political scientists in PNG. Paita is the most recent example. While the ways that parties are sustained has not changed, we demonstrate here that overtime, these "strong" parties have become fewer in number, attracted more MPs and smaller parties, and recent amendments to laws governing government change has led to their consolidation within parliament.

Gentlemen, thanks for the write-up. It’s informative. I just want to share another perspective on winning parties. One or two parties that have changed leadership, especially Political wing, have seen increased winning numbers. A good example, Peoples First Party, stagnant for quite a while under late Governor for Morobe Luther Wenge, when the leadership changed to Richard Maru won couple of seats. PANGU’s resurrection came during the time of late Sam Basil. He maintained momentum for giving life to a party, did the same for ULP until his untimely passing. Not the same for PDM Paias Wingi held onto the leadership and once a powerful party now became nonexistent. PNG Party once had huge following under Sir Mek. Today it’s still struggling to go past 2 MPs. THE Party once powerhouse now probably has no political wing after Kandep MP defected to PANGU. When Parties changes leadership it produces different results. Just a suggestion, you could look at an article that assess the changes in leadership and its impact on winning candidates.

Thank you Michael and Maho, for generating the data and discussion in relation to ENP, the data now confirm indeed fragmentation has fallen. I have discuss here as well the casuality of ENP to Section 63 of OLLIPAC [invitation to Form the Government] after 2002 but have not have data to support this claim. This is intersting development as I think the debate in Party politics party system is gradually shifting from frangmentation to party Visibility.

I comment both Australia and Vanuatu for a security deal when needed for a secure and safer future. However, the internal dynamics of socio-economic conditions would always ensure Vanuatu look elsewhere for funding and support. That elsewhere would most turn out to be China. Let me put it straight that the same is true for PNG, Solomon Island and Fiji whose relationship with China as a market and source of assistance for social and infrastructural development would always stand in the way for security cooperation with the greater Pacific Island Nations. The crux of the relational dilemma facing Vanuatu, Fiji or Papua New Guinea is that of balancing security cooperation with economic growth-driven relations with China and other non-traditional emerging partners.

Thank you. I am a 4th year law student at upng and I am doing my Major Research Paper on Evictions in Port Moresby.

Can you please send me updates regarding this as I am also a landowner.

I agree with your raised point ☝️. Two weeks ago I was slashed with bushknife by my second sibling ( biological brother) for the reasons of greed and jealousy. I almost lost my life when I was lashed right across the back of my neck, now sustained by right stitches. This brutal attack happened while my three Under aged children ( ages 11, 9 and 7) watched helplessly, crying " mummy, mummy!" As a single mother, I had to leave formal job and go to live in the village for cover against my unfaithful husband. Hoping my village was the safest place to reside and raise my children after going through a very tough time with my abusive husband for a long time. Unfortunately, I came out of the frying pan and into the fire! Highlands customs demands land rights to male counterparts only. With that understanding, I still pursued home with a daughter and two sons. Built two resident houses and ready to settled, when I was ambushed by my two brothers, who thought it not right to share the land with me as their first born sister. They felt threatened by my two boys for future concerns over land heritage. I nearly died due to loss 😔 of heavy blood. I took it to court but couldn't imprison them for fear of future retaliation on me, my children and our current homes I am a victim with scars, this time not one but doubled! After reading your published article, I saw that this cry is also mine. Am currently looking for refuge out of PNG, to preferably - Australia. May I be helped, please, with my three children. I have all my evidence and support documentation from hospital to legal authority. Save me and my children! Cry 😭 of a desperate mother.

Dear Julie, Greetings from Norfolk Island. I am so pleased to see that you are still fighting for the culture and the people of Nauru. After 40 years, I am saddened to see that it is still an uphill battle for you. Keep going Julie!. Rhonda

When the people take hold of their future and their future generations and see the promise and the peril that is possible, they ALL must see that what they actually do each month, each week, each day, and each hour tells their future. Children should have classes in economics using their own country, their own homes and mostly their own lives as the electrifying example of the possibilities.