Comments

Thank you very much JK Domyal for providing these insights. I really like the alternative title you have proposed: "will Marape stand the test of coalition politics and individual MPs politics in PNG?”. Thinking in terms of coalition politics and individual MPs politics, it seems we have: 1. a contest between O'Neill and Marape for PNC; 2. a contest between PNC and PANGU with Marape the glue between PNC and PANGU; 3. a mobile and important NA that seems to be moving between; 4. Individual influential MPs moving also. It seems that Marape is both the glue pulling everyone together while at the same time not quite the leader of either PNC or PANGU. I am curious about the implications of this the arguments for the introduction of OLIPPAC and how things will unfold leading into the 2022 elections. For me, important questions are: Will Marape need to be leader of a political party if he is to sustain the PM position? Convention in PNG politics suggests that one needs to have some alliances with a political party (although not necessarily one with majority numbers) to be invited to form government. Does he want to be the leader of a political party? I agree with you that, how Marape can keep everyone intact and happy is a holy grail. Interesting times ahead.

Thanks Michael for these insights. Thank you also for your latest blog giving great perspectives and insights into the overall dynamics. I think it will be very interesting, leading into the 2022 elections to track how this dynamics between political leaders and parties develops. Clearly, and not surprisingly, any aspirant for the PM post needs either have a very strong charisma to draw supporters around him and/or needs to own or take leadership of a political party. It's interesting to note that the moves between opposition and government also seem to be about hopping and sidestepping where certain people are. For example, there seems to be a lot of focus on where O'Neill is placed in shaping how MPs move. I wonder how long term relationships between MPs, feuds, political settlements and so on are influencing MPs decisions? I would love to be a fly on the wall.

Michael thanks for this discussion. You look closely at the events that unfold and realise that Marape did not remove PNC-majority of the PNC members are still with the government-it could be hard for Marape to do that. Former Minister for National Planning was removed not because of PNC, it was due to the EU Agricultural loan approval delay caused by Maru but spearheaded by ES Governor Bird and Maru’s continued communication with former PM O’Neill while under Marape-Davis government. One point that is intellectually critical is this: Marape is yet to assume leadership of the Pangu Parti. Without this, he cannot entirely dismiss PNC, of which he was a core member. Once O’Neill is implicated in allegations, the PNC leadership is going to be vacant, non-other than Marape is the likely successor. The PNC party has a strong hold in the Highlands, especially Hela, SHP, Enga. Marape knows this fact, and he cannot dismiss PNC. This understanding is confirmed by what Marape said when he gave opportunity for the eight PNC ministers to decide for themselves, either to leave government or to stay with them. Your discussion on assorted MPs hanging under Marape-Davis government, it goes back to the fluidity of the political party system we have and the prevailing status quo of today’s politics. The particular section of the “integrity law on political parties and candidates” that restricts movement of MPs in government and opposition and from one political party to another has been rendered null and void so now you see the results. Marape sits in three situations: 1. He will take over the leadership of PNC once O’Neill is implicated and resign, PNC has a strong hold in the Highlands. 2. At the moment he is yet to be given the Pangu Parti leadership, which Pangu executives would not want to do but leave it to a later time. 3. Whilst this, Marape wants to deliver on some national agendas and he needs the likes of competent MPs in the former government and the opposition. That’s why you see exodus of likeminded MPs moving to one side. However, one immediate number game that Marape needs to get it right is the balance of convenience to govern; in the event of PNC move to the opposition with 22 or so MPs, he needs to pull in NA party to balance it. That is why we have witnessed the recent move by Pruaitch and the NA team. More update to come.

Thank you Ellen, although DSIP per head is disparate across electorates, each province still receives an overall budget proportionate to its size, which means the largest electorates do get larger funding for specific services. Although population isn't the only factor in determining political boundaries, from a services and management perspective, it is still be very important. Simply redrawing and/or splitting electorates reduces population per electorate, means smaller populations are easier to reach and manage, higher DSIP per head, and each voter casts an equal vote (at present a vote in Rabaul is worth 6 in Laigap-Porgera). This will occur regardless of geography.

While I agree with your recommendation for the reviewing and redrawing of the district boundaries since PNG's population is constantly growing every year, to define the size of the districts solely on population and redrawing boundaries based on that criterion could also lead to inequality as well. Since the land mass, especially in the highlands region where it is highly populated, won't get any bigger, what are other options aside from redrawing boundaries and what options are there for the sparsely populated but geographically larger districts? Equality should be based on access to services not just on the DSIP kina per head factor.

Thank you Michael -- that's a very interesting point. My thinking is that -- ideally -- the issue of geography's impact on service delivery should not prevent PNG from aiming for more equal district sizes. The issue of geographical challenges is real. But (again ideally) I think geography would be best dealt with by including geography as a factor when the amount of funding to different provinces and districts is calculated. I admit, my approach, which seems ideal to me, might not be practically possible: political settlements are always complicated. If my approach isn't realistic, then the issue you identified stands, and needs to be included in considerations. Thank you for a thought-provoking comment. Terence

Thank you Billy

Valid points. I totally agree with your points.

One of the issues with the current method based on population is that it doesn’t account for provinces with large land masses and scattered populations even if its less than the number required for a new district. For instance, Western Province has vast landmass, which makes service delivery challenging. The same can be said of Manus, with Islands people scattered on the many islands. New district boundaries should also consider provinces with vast boundaries even if population is relatively small.

Hi all, thanks for the comments and corrections (Francis, Amanda, and Bernard) on Kua’s party - PNG National Party, and Richard Maru’s portfolio - National Planning. A correction will be provided at the end of the blog. Thanks again.

Thank you Mr Michael Kabuni for this very interesting, insightful piece. As others have said, Hon. Richard Maru was Minister for Planning before the recent changes. He had been in the role for some time, having survived the change of Prime Minister. You mentioned the PNG Update conference held at UPNG this year, as the Prime Minister James Marape spoke on the first morning. Hon. Richard Maru spoke as then Minister for Planning on the second morning, and his well-received address is available at the same link you provided (https://devpolicy.crawford.anu.edu.au/png-and-pacific-updates/png-update). Thanks again for the helpful write-up.

Great question Matt! I also think when it comes to health security, we need to be increasing our investments to multilateral programs such as Global Fund, Global Polio Eradication Initiative and Gavi the Vaccine Alliance. I hope Australia really steps up over the coming months as these key replenishments take place. Gavi's replenishment due in June next year provides us an opportunity to show our regional leadership in ensuring every last child receives a vaccine. These programs are critical in delivering life-saving vaccines and in tacking infectious diseases: a threat that knows no border.