Comments

Great insights Dan. I wonder how much this change had to RAMSI and/or other donors/NGOs, or is it all community driven? If the latter is the key message that donors and others should get out of the way when it comes to security? Or should they cautiously support sporting programs that stress players not drink, etc? On another note, the mellowing of Raskols due to marriage and kids reminds me of the fate of the main protagonist, Alex, in A Clockwork Orange (the first book version published in the UK, the second US version and film omits the final chapter on his love-inspired mellowing). So, a request: can you reference ACO in the thesis - at least once?

Really good article that got my thought juices flowing, and is very applicable to environmental management processes in one supposedly developed country - Australia - where the tussle between 'the intensely local nature of problem solving with the ever-present desire for impact at larger scales' has ended up in a decade or more of shadow boxing between whats funded by government as 'Natural Resource Management' and the more community based landcare movement. So your article then asks "What, then, is actually scalable? Is it the specific policy solution or change in practice developed in a given district that should be replicated in other contexts, or rather the process of facilitated problem solving? If it is the former, does abstracting the outcome from the navigation of the political process simply result in transplanting technocratic solutions (even within country borders) that will lead to implementation failures and the creation of institutional forms without function?" Yep. I'm sticking with 'facilitated problem solving' at the local level - nothing else seems to work - and feel its not so much a matter of scaling up but building cohesion between all the locally applied local solutions so that the accumulated benefits deal with how those local problems express themselves at scale

Debt to GDP commentary aside, how about the viability of the petrodollar cycle and the increasing use of alternative currencies, by the global South? Pacific Island nations may shift in that direction as well; considering the Belt and Road Initiative (BRI) is at their door steps.

Daniel - thanks for the blog. This describes well the challenge we are addressing through an ambitious Decentralisation and Citizen participation portfolio here in Papua New Guinea. One key element is a local solutions initiative that combines locally-driven catalytic co-investments in services or economic opportunity with more transferable governance outcomes. The idea is both to establish local capabilities in policy and program/projects, but also influence national policy (where decentralisation is still less established and more confused than in Indonesia). Consider a visit to PNG - the 'land of the unexpected'!

FSV is a massive challenge for the nation. We had a Bel Isi advocate present some stats and it was quite disconcerting, it made me think and in my reflection I could not name any family I know that has not been touched by FSV - it would almost be an exception to the norm if I could think of one. Without trying to erode the importance at of the work being done at this FSV stage (i.e. the violence has occurred), I'm curious to know the level of investment in "preventative programs" in comparison to activities at this stage where the crime. Are we doing enough to prepare the young children, teenagers and young adults to be making the right decisions, understanding their values and being able to ID shared values in others, builds self-esteem, etc. I'm no expert but psychology plays a big part, doesn't it? What's out there for our kids to build them up and prep them for life.

Develop the value chain, the Department is just one piece in the puzzle.

Thanks Paul for your valuable comments. Ideally, it is better to have sector price indices as deflator in obtaining PNG's real GDP as having one implicit price deflator masks the heterogeneous nature of individual sector. This should paint a clearer picture of the real activity taking place in different sectors and better reflect the economic welfare of the population. Having said that, we know it's practically not feasible when NSO struggles to even release economic data on a timely manner. Anyway, looking forward to your analysis.

Thanks Dek and Bao for examining this vital area. As someone who works on analysing PNG's economic history, this is a valuable contribution and I certainly support the conclusions - including extending the same points to other Pacific countries. Three main comments. First, there was a massive break in the GDP series in 2006. The NSO, working with the Australian Bureau of Statistics, used improved methodologies to determine GDP in 2006 was nearly 50% larger than the NSO's own earlier estimates. Unfortunately, they did not then determine how best to apply this major revision to their earlier numbers (NSO does have earlier figures - they just haven't been adjusted for the 50% change). Most of the huge variation in the World Bank and UNCTAD series results from no attempt to update earlier figures, while the IMF has (presumably by backcasting former sectoral growth rates to the new sectoral structure of the economy for 2006). Second, as you indicate, the choice of the deflator series can have a major impact. This becomes even more significant when separating PNG's resource sector from PNG's non-resource sector. When working with GDP series, especially if trying to determine trends in economic welfare, it is important in a dualistic economy such as PNG to separate out the non-resource sector GDP (so that part of GDP on which 85% of PNG households depend) and arguably apply a deflator reflecting changes in household costs rather than a GDP implicit price deflator. Once again, when looking across the Pacific, there is a real need to carefully consider the appropriate deflator to determine changes in household economic welfare. Thirdly, there are some extraordinary games being played with PNG's GDP series from 2015 onwards. My conclusion in a blog coming out on the PNG Economics website on 28 January is PNG's GDP statistics from 2015 have been deliberately corrupted by the current PNG Government. Thanks again for the analysis. Paul

Michael Igoe from Devex puts a slightly more positive spin on the situation (from a non-Trump point of view) suggesting that the possibility of an opposing candidate winning creates significant pressure to put forward someone credible - citing that member countries rejected Trump's pick for the International Organisation for Migration. Ngozi Okonjo-Iweala (also an American citizen now) a potential challenger (or nominee). Link: https://www.devex.com/news/the-world-bank-presidential-race-heats-up-94140

Interesting to hear that Nationals are now voicing and taking an active lead in this space. I have worked as for AusAID and now DFAT for the past 10 years and do identify with many of the sentiments being raised by these health workers. We have truly come 360 on many of not all of the points that are being raised. An example is the communication strategy; this has been on the cards for quite some time. I have also seen that compared to other sectors the health sector is by far one that is awashed with donors and development partners. Huge transaction costs on the part of the MHMS is one that needs to be managed well. Otherwise PHDs and staff are caught reacting to external requests rather than doing the actual implementation itself. A refreshing read. Kudos to you fellow nationals.

January 1st this year was to be the cut-off date for mobile phone users in district towns in PNG to register their mobile phone SIM cards, or face deactivation. Have any readers had their phones deactivated? Or heard of anyone’s phone being deactivated? District towns on the list for deactivation at the start of this year included Arawa and Buin in the Autonomous Region of Bougainville, Chuave and Kerowagi in Chimbu Province, Bogia and Gusap in Madang Province, Namatanai in New Ireland Province, Malalaua in Gulf Province, and similarly sized district centres in most other provinces. January 1st 2019 was also the cut-off date for provincial centres Wabag (Enga Province), Tari (Hela Province) and Mendi (Southern Highlands). These three provincial towns had been given five extra months for registration due to the substantial disruption caused by a huge earthquake early in 2018. Rural and remote users have until May 1st this year to register their mobile phone SIM cards before their phones are deactivated. I think this staged approach to deactivations seems to be a good idea. It has certainly given rural and remote users more time to register. It will be interesting to see how many phones are deactivated on May 1st. Experiences and thoughts of readers and mobile phone users would be welcome.

Sir Julius will always be one of the few genuine leaders this country has had the honor of being served. Downright humility in leadership style, no nonsense in decision making and being able to back it up with resource and of funding. If PNG had a few more Sir Julius', we would have been better off in all aspects of a developing nation on all fronts. He will continue to inspire many of us long after he sets sail for that resting place for natural born leaders like him... God Sir J and PNG...