Comments

Thanks, That's a great question. We chose to look at aid volume-related questions because, as mentioned in the post, other research suggested that over-estimation of volumes was associated with lower support for aid. Seeking to know if we could correct this gave us question 1. From there is made sense to work following a theme and to add two different frames of reference (the past, and someone else). The UK comparison didn't give us a groundswell but it has afforded an interesting insight into how volume related information works. I totally agree there are other types of information we should experiment with. We are hoping to do this later this year. Thanks again for a very good question. Terence

Thanks John and David. Having also worked in the PNG Dept of Finance from 1988 to 1991, and again from 2001 to 2003, it was interesting (and disappointing) to get this update on the state of PFM. But I do think we are expecting too much from a single instrument like the PEFA. Political economy issues are clearly a major and binding constraint for PNG, and the PEFA is simply not designed to diagnose these let alone suggest how to address them. I have found this in various African and Pacific Island ministries of finance that I have been able work in over extended periods. In only a couple of cases (Tanzania and Samoa) could I clearly see progress, and in both these cases there was strong and sustained political ownership over a long period from both a President or Prime Minister, together with consistent engagement from committed DPs in the PFM space. Civil servants in MoF's can subtly detect the difference in political rhetoric that is intended just for DP consumption, and when it is a serious statement of intent from their political masters - and they behave and respond to PFM reform accordingly.

Hi Terence Thanks for this interesting insight. It's great that you can compare three different methods and see the response to each. Unique opportunity. I'm curious as to how you picked the 3 different methods to explain why Australia isn't giving enough aid. It seems to me that they are all numbers based arguments. They also don't explain to the public what aid actually is, or how it helps. Even the most successful of the 3 options only had about 23% of people thinking that Australia doesn't give enough aid. Sure, that's a big change from the control group, but hardly enough for a campaigner to feel like we're creating a groundswell of support. How did you come to the 3 different wordings that you provided? Thanks heaps.

I don’t follow the political landscape of Nauru, Marshall Islands and Solomon Islands to have an opinion on their political leadership. However for PNG, I beg to differ. A change of portfolio is not a political upheaval. In fact, it’s a commitment to pairing the right skills set and strength to a particular role. We do that in business all the time. It’s called business alignment. With all due respect to Dr Transform Aqorau, PNG has enjoyed stability in Government for the past 2 terms with Prime Minister Peter O’Neill at the helm. We have seen the greatest infrastructure development in this period than in the 20 years prior. True, the distribution of wealth still needs to trickle down to the rural remote communities where the majority of the population reside but in a country with 800+ different languages, as many tribes and cultural backdrops against a challenging landscape, you can’t sit in Australia’s political glass house and throw rocks at PNG. Afterall, is Australia not in the Pacific? Why too was Fiji not included. The write-up is on political intrigues in the Pacific is it not? Kind Regards, Beatrice Mahuru

Having worked in PNG Treasury for a couple of years until 2014 I can't disagree with any of this. The core problem is that no-one ever gets punished for breaking the law, from Ministers down to petty clerks. Until that happens I hold out little hope.

Regarding the news item from the New Yorker I would like to clarify the Kariba dam situation which has been mis-reported in this article (and a few others). Quoting a colleague of mine who is an experienced Zambian engineer who knows the dam well: "Jacques Leslie should stay in SF and watch American Football, rather than meddle in things he is not qualified to offer alarmist projections about. The article is not to be taken seriously - he is misinformed and trying to make a living out of alarmist reporting. As I said before, all dams with flood gates through the wall have plunge pools to approx 2/3 the height of the drop - it is simple energy equation and practice has proven this to be appropriate. There is no cause for alarm, it needs some renovations but they are not urgent. A failure would not wipe out Cabora Bassa downstream in Mozambique, but it would flood over the top of that wall. The dam in Iraq is more of a problem - and I would not want to live downstream."

Is there anywhere online...a copy of the paper he delivered in the 1970 Waigani Seminar

Hi Carmen, Thank you for a honest and unbiased write up. When I started reading your post I was fearing the worst already, but the story never went the way I had thought like most stories would end up (Negative). I hope you enjoy your stay in PNG and if you have time, do walk the Kokoda Track, and visit other places around the country, because you will never regret. All the negative stories you hear do happen because the tourists do not respect local authorities and try to do things their own way and get into such mishaps. I have organised trips for tourists from Brisbane, Sydney, Melbourne, Perth, Townsville, Sydney, Singapore, Cape Town, Brussels and New York besides the local expatriates from Pom, Lae Mt Hagen and Goroka. They have never regretted and I know you will also have the same experience. Ed.

Thanks for this post Gordon it raises a really important point that mainstream academia needs to engage with if influencing people who make development decisions is at least part of what they do. My favourite line from a reviewer was 'can you put more in the bibliography?'

The percentage figure quoted, which is from DAC statistics, relates to gross bilateral ODA. It doesn't include imputed multilateral flows. But nor does it include aid to PNG, Australia's largest recipient by a mile. PNG has in the not-so-distant past met the criteria for classification as an LDC but, unusually, it refused to allow itself to be so classified. I am unsure whether it currently meets the criteria but I imagine it wouldn't miss by a mile. So the 24% figure is perhaps a little misleading.

Chris, It's great to have this sort of analysis which can help to identify both need and capacity. Thanks. When you say Australia is giving less than 25% of its aid budget to LDCs are you including Australian dollars that go to LDCs via the UN, multilateral banks and multilateral funds?

Hi Tess, it is true that Samoa has been the most stable country politically in the region over the past fifteen to twenty years and there is a reason for that. I first visited Samoa after Cyclone Val in 1991 which is not really that long ago in terms of observing the developments there but my first impressions at the time was of a place that was devastated by the cyclone. I subsequently visited almost every year after that for the next 15 years, and each time there were noticeable changes and improvements in the infrastructure and just the general appearance of the Capital. Political stability also has a percolating effect on economic growth. ok granted, Samoa’s GDP is about 60% owed to China in loans but they have been successful in integrating Chinese Aid/Loans into their economic development. It helps to have some political stability which is supported by having a common culture, language and a chiefly system and political continuity albeit coagulated around one man - the current Prime Minister who is loved by most and loathed by some, but nonetheless respected and admired by his detractors for what he has done for Samoa. Whether or not you can argue that this is because of the system of Government or because of the persona of the Prime Minister and the strength of their Party is not really clear to me. I think it is a bit of a combination of both factors. As to whether this is likely to be replicated in other countries; that is hard to see They have developed their unique approach to governance which a generation of Samoans have been used to and perhaps comfortable with.