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Super interesting comparison, where we realise that, Gulf countries aside, Australia (and Russia!) are really "up there" in terms of resource revenues per capita. Would be interesting to look at: - comparison with other Pacific countries - comparison of reserves. Maybe PNG has a lot of them compared to resource rent? Also maybe looking at 2021 only skews the analysis, given how volatile resource prices have been since then.

The national goals and directive principles in the preamble inspires human integral development of equality and participation, the majority of PNG's population must equal participation in the formal economy. emphasis should be focus address the financial literacy and infrastructure connective. The people must formally connect to monetize economy to enhance living standard access and usage of financial services. Thats PNG's vision 2050

Great piece, Rohan. It's all pretty relative, and the definitions get muddy, with the rhetoric having strong implications, as you point out. The 90s work on this topic used the term abundance, but the indicator was typically the resources' share of exports (think Sachs and Warner), which of course, only measures export dependence. Then, that got split into point and diffuse resources, different types, etc. Then, people shifted to reserves (Norman was the original dataset on this), often put in per capita terms, as a measure of abundance, and termed the former dependence. The consensus then was that volatility was really the key, and it was in this era that the Natural Resource Charter emerged (now, NRGI I think), which I think then and to this day represents best practice in resource policy recommendations. The resource rents measure surfaced somewhere in between, although I was never a big fan, and where people had access (as the best geotagged data are commercial), the most popular and best data to use in empirical work became "discovery" shocks (see Rabah Arezki's work) and production levels (or taking the endowments as a given and just using price variation), which I think made more sense and allows for more credible measurement and research designs. In my first PhD chapter (the WD paper) I instead used mining share of GDP to pick up current mining dependence more specifically, but an interesting point raised in using reserves as well is that they're estimates and known, where the extent to which they are known is also endogenous as a function of exploration effort, tech, etc., which is in turn a clear function of institutions, see Cust et al JEEA). So, no matter which way you go, there are limitations and I guess it comes down to just being clear on what you are trying to measure. But this is a roundabout way of saying its nice to see your post, and this topic discussed more here. The WB team's recent work, which they presented in our UPNG seminar, on development trends observed using different rounds of different survey data, makes similar points and does some interesting comparisons to other "resource-rich" countries, if I recall correctly. It is an important grounding discussion to have. Relatedly, we (Kelly and I, with generous inputs from Colin F) put together a district-level dataset of mine locations with opening dates, if that can be of further use to you or anyone reading. Of course, research-ready subnational panel data does not really exist to link it to though.

Thank you Michael. You're right - it would be great to get it published, but until then, there's always the thesis (first link in the blog), and the other linked articles and blogs. Regards, Pete

Thank you Derek. Indeed, bribery and quality certainly came up in my research. However, these along with many other details which are reasonably well understood, were not the focus of this short blog, or my presentation. Instead I sort to draw attention to less well-known facts, noting that there is greater detail in the articles linked to the blog (including the thesis itself if you're particularly interested). Regards, Pete

No doubt the audiences would have appreciated the opportunity to respond to your findings. It would be great to see this comprehensive research in a monograph Pete!

This is an excellent blog post, thank you Miranda and Sinclair. Thank you also for a very good point Fiona. As you say, PNG has all manner of strategies: the major issue is that many strategies simply aren't implemented. Wouldn't it be better to focus on getting resources and support out to the grassroots? At least, that would be my advice to aid donors. Though I can see why domestic advocates and peace officials might want to focus on different aspects of the problem.

Peter, thanks your presentation. You neglected to mention that PRC SOEs also engage in bribery in order to win contracts, most often deliver a shoddy product, and rarely provide after-service. The Chinese Embassy turns a blind eye to these illegal and unscrupulous practices. There are many examples of PRC SOE failures, including the Convention Centre and Noble Tower in Port Moresby, and the recently opened Wabag Hospital. Of course, it takes two to tango, and some PNG politicians and public servants are happy to entertain such PRC SOE practices. The ADB's procurement process in the Pacific is also getting worse, not better - despite what the ADB says publicly.

Hello Stephen, The link in your article to “aid to the Pacific might be relatively ineffective” is more prescient than ever. Papua New Guinea (PNG), by far Australia’s closest neighbour receives the largest slice of the Australian aid cake but results leave much to be desired. Not surprising when viewed through a western lens. And these results are considered to be far worse from the point of view of the average PNG citizen. In a place where everyone grows up in a hyper local world view that rarely extends beyond the interests of the clan group, why should we be surprised when a politician or public servant acts in a manner that best fits their interests? By definition, government to government assistance to PNG is doomed before it leaves donor shores. Could this be the reason so much money is being focussed on infrastructure improvement but precious little finds its way into human development. Surely the foundation of nation building is about people. The metrics for success should be measured in terms of the number of women dying in childbirth, the percentage of youth finding gainful employment or the resilience of communities in the face of climate induced change rather than the erection of buildings that will not be maintained or roads that will rapidly fall into disrepair. As climate change continues to challenge traditional ways of life, as more and more people will have to move from low lying environments once the soil they have always relied upon becomes too salty to produce safe food, as subsistence slash and burn agriculture exposes more land to erosion and coral reefs fail to produce enough food for up to half the population, how are new buildings or a culturally inept public sector supposed to help? It is past time to throw failed models out the window and focus upon human development at grass roots level, on the recipient’s terms where the only governance that matters resides and this calls for innovative thinking and actions. Nothing short of that is going to prevent major social upheaval as environmental conditions slowly but inexorably worsen while the system we have supported for five decades wallows rudderless in decreasing circles.

Than you, Drs Forsyth and Dinnen, I was the main lead facilitator for the peace officials for Jiwaka at Voice for Change, that made the call at the of the workshop. I have been a local peacebuilding and conflict resolution trainer for the last 15 years with many local and international organizations. I have developed a contextualized peacebuilding training manual (English and Tok Pisin) that I use in the trainings for local leaders. Your call to develop a Peacebuilding strategy in PNG has been a concern and recommendation from many participants in my trainings. I concur that local peace advocates and leaders must be engaged to identify local solutions to local conflicts. A liberal peacebuilding approach. Peace Education can be integrated into the primary, secondary and tertiary education system.

"HUMAN RIGHTS IN ISLAM: THE RIGHT TO EDUCATION" The right to education is strongly provided for Islam, under the Universal Islamic Declaration of Human Rights, adopted by the Islamic Council of Europe on 19 September 1981/21 Dhul Qaidah 1401, and also under the UNSDG 17 especially GOAL 4: Quality education. The updates can be seen in "The Sustainable Development Goals Report 2023". All countries, ought to comply with the above global guidance to achieve total justice for the global community 2025 and beyond. Prof.M.Dr.Jeong Chun Phuoc

Hi Greg, Yes of course these issues are far more complex than simply raised in the article, and I think the ones you have touched on are probably the three most important things I didn't discuss, so thank you. The new Government looks hopefully like we'll have stability at last, and yes the road is nearly unusable at the moment, but works should start soon to fix it. Let's just hope it lasts longer than two years... And as for staffing yes, it is a huge need, and one that requires (in my opinion) far easier access to labour (skilled and unskilled) from overseas in the short-term, and then a complete rethinking and transformation of the education and skills pathways in the medium to long-term. But what that looks like and how to achieve that is obviously far beyond this platform I'll be in touch with you separately for a further catchup to discuss some of these issues. Thanks