Comments

Matthew, thanks for this thoughtful post on some important issues I am very glad are being discussed more. Three comments. First, I agree with Connell’s point that we lack the evidence we need for a complete cost-benefit-type analysis, and your point that harms are often presumed. Second, although there is not much evidence on the current scheme, a lot of high-quality work has been done (some of which you mention). In particular, the conceptual frameworks in McKenzie and Gibson (https://bit.ly/2G0JqMc) and Docquier and Rapoport (https://bit.ly/2L8a75P) provide useful starting points for thinking about the channels and what might go on each side of the ledger. Systematic studies credibly estimating these impacts from both the Pacific and other countries indeed give mixed result. However, for the most part, it does not suggest we should presume a drain (see, e.g., these two careful papers on the Filipino experience by Caroline Theoharides https://bit.ly/2JHChlh , https://bit.ly/2JnuZTe ). Satish Chand made this point most eloquently at the 2019 Pacific Update last Friday, drawing partly from his excellent paper with Michael Clemens on Fiji’s historical experience (https://bit.ly/2S22Hlf ). Finally, on the ballooning numbers you mention, a crude look at the national aggregates from the WDI suggests that nurses per capita in several (read: all that I looked at) Pacific countries are rising. For example, Fiji went from 1.9/1000 in 1999 to 2.9 in 2015 while Kiribati went from 2.3 (1998) to 4.6 (2013). These are of course denominated by population, which grew much slower: 806,000 to 869,000, and 81,000 to 108,000 for the same country-years. I am not sure if the numbers in the Australian and Pacific censuses include those temporarily away, but we should be able to assume these aggregate numbers from the World Bank are broadly consistent with them. My third point is thus that when thinking about sending country human capital stocks the current evidence does not let us rule out that the actual levels remaining and working in the Pacific would not be lower in the absence of exit options, an effect the recent careful studies I’ve linked to above all point towards. All this is but to say that (a) I would caution readers against starting from a “drain” prior, as the most careful prior work does not point to this, and (b) we really need more careful, systematic quantitative evidence on the benefits and costs for the diversity of participating countries in 2019. We are working on this at the moment, and welcome more to do the same!

We educate bulk of our population on Climate Change Please.

Has not been fully removed in Australia. Has only South Australia and Queensland to go.

Hi Richard, As a victim of this from 1986, I was whipped for simply smiling at a class clown, teacher was removed from school permanently and now they can't find her in QLD Government archives. I'm now an advocate for permanent removal in Queensland. Would like to speak via e-mail if possible?

Thanks Sinclair and Grant for this discussion Policing in PNG serves two purposes; (i) protecting lives and properties and (ii) bring those lawbreakers to face justice. Security in PNG serves one purpose; protect property is the foremost and lives to a lesser extent. In PNG we have security firm operating mostly in towns and cities where more commercial activities goes on and nil or no need for security presence in the villages or settlements. Police stations can be found in towns and cities as well as in the villages and settlements as they have a statutory obligation. In practice-security firms and personnel compliments manpower shortage in the Police force routine in policing work, especially in towns and cities-it works naturally in PNG, no formal agreement in place between the two entities. In the future, it is something that needs to be looked at to align; compliment and share policing work in PNG between security firms and Police force. However, policemen and women have sworn to serve the state under the constitution and security firms cannot exist under the same principle. To understand your hypothesis better, you could draw similar comparisons from other countries where Police and security firms work complement each other. In other countries where real guns are used and terrorism are a daily occurrence, would you recommend Police force and security firms to work together if it is going to be the case for PNG.

Thanks Michael for this commentary PNG Politics is always fluid, never at one time will it be smooth and fixed. This was always noted by former PNG political commentators and analysts like Dr Anere, Dr Okolo and Dr Hegarty. PNG is a fluid democracy that survive for over 40 years now. When you look critically at the demise of O’Neill and rise of Marabe, it has more to do with the unconventional political realm than the conventional party politics in a Westminster system. Why the O’Neill government changed depends on the views the general population and the MPs on both sides of the House have on the socio-economic and law and order dynamics of the country, and how it was governed. PM Marabe seized this opportunity. How the new PM allocates portfolios, depends on unconventional political realm like Party influence based on numbers, not on party policies. Based on individual, regional and provincial conveniences and not based on competency to govern. That would explain why the PM allocates more MPs to the Highlands or more to Chimbu. Or why he pulled two strong opposition men into the government side and served them with portfolios. The new PM also considers representation in cabinet and ensuring that key parties have a voice in there; that is where the new minister for foreign affairs comes in as a voice from the gas resource province. Another unconventional impact is the unseen influence from key players in the making or breaking of government - evidently their interest and offer needs to be entertained. As a political analyst, you investigate the formation of this current government. You will prove me right by agreeing with me that the PM, and deputy PM positions, are between Hela and Enga. Not what used to be previously along regional representation after general election or after a vote of no confidence in PNG history.

Well, I actually think that while setting the high political direction as espoused in James Marape's address to the Nation about "becoming the richest Christian black nation on earth" seems feasible. I also think that to get there there is a range of social, economic, democratic good governance and infrastructural issues that need to be addressed or rectified. There are large gaps at every tier of PNG society and as echoed in many other comments preceding mine. Clearly, the Prime Minister needs to get a good team of advisers around him with a balanced mix to bring a wealth of experience, youth, qualifications, knowledge and wisdom to bear in ensuring that we strive for dynamic equilibrium in development of our country rather than static equilibrium.

Thank you for your very valuable insights Miranda and the illustrations of harnessing the power of culture and theology to support change. Just one "picky" point about your use of "learnings". Yes, usage of this words is becoming more common, as is the related "trainings". Learnings is the pluralisation of an erroneous form of learning as a singular noun. That singular noun (a learning) does not exist, it is a non-countable noun. Although there is debate about the word, it still reads to be ungrammatical and broken English - or a business buzz word at best.

Banking is also an issue: it was reported some time back that Mastercard (which wasn't all that widely accepted, but at least could be used for some major expenses like hotel bills and rental cars) is no longer able to be used in Timor-Leste. In addition, the ANZ ATMs which were a mainstay for years for getting cash are no longer there (or so I understand) since the local ANZ bank moved out of personal banking. And it is really, REALLY difficult to get accurate and reliable official information on what international cards are now usable in what ATMs. That in itself would be enough to put off plenty of potential tourists. The issue of doing away (and then not doing away) with visas on arrival, discussed in the article, was a classic example of failure of whole-of-government policy making in relation to tourism. Not only was it a bad idea, but it was on the point of being very badly implemented. Vietnam, Cambodia and Myanmar, for example, have such a requirement, but they also have processes for applying and paying online, which didn't seem to be part of the Timor-Leste plan. The Timorese embassies abroad didn't seem to have been well briefed, and there was some suggestion that applicants would need to send in bank statements (!) with their applications. And there was different information to be found on different websites. Just how the requirement might have affected, for example, former UNAMET staff in Africa minded to return for the much-trumpeted anniversary of the 1999 popular consultation doesn't seem to have crossed anyone's mind, nor was it clear what rules would apply to people coming onshore from cruise ships, and so on, and so on. Flights are only part of the problem. I've been to Timor-Leste dozens of times, lived there for several months at one point, and will keep going back to see my friends, despite the problems. But if I didn't have that history, I suspect the challenges under discussion here would have been quite enough to take it off my bucket list.

Very insightful and thought-provoking.

Dear Michael, I take time out from my schedule to provide my comments and thoughts on your article. Firstly, I think it is a useful and insightful article and could be improved further particularly in understanding the motives of Members of Parliament in voting or moving from one party to the next during the grace period leading up to a possible vote of no confidence. Secondly, while I do concur that PNG politics is fluid especially before, during, and after a vote of no confidence. I think politics in Milne Bay is even more fluid and unpredictable given that not everyone finds their MP 'their professed cup of tea', to phrase it rather politely. Thirdly, I believe that this article is a good one and should be further strengthened by uncovering why MPs behave the way they do. Is it do to with party affiliations or political views shared fairly broadly in their own constituency? Cheers bro!

Very insightful and relevant in today's world. After all, children are the future.