Comments

Guyana may be the new Nauru. GDP per capita PPP is projected to surpass UK and Canada this year. Projected to hit as high as US$200,000 in 2030.

Well done Kingtau and Alyssa. Its a good analysis of the 2023 budget with clear recommendation. I hope the policy makers take note of this in there decision making. All the best. Jetta

Thanks Stephen, I'm still working on getting full election results, of the sort that will allow me to compare before and after preference vote share. The idea you suggest is interesting, and I will have a look at what this sort of stuff reveals, once full results data are available. Terence

Hello Terence, it might be interesting to know what percentage of the electoral turnout each successful MP captured on the first round of counting. Given the numbers of candidates standing in each electorate this might reveal some interesting insights. In past when the system was FPTP there were instances of successful candidates with less than ten percent of the popular vote – one who famously had six percent claimed he had won a mandate from the people. First round results under the limited preferential system may reflect similar patterns. I doubt voter allegiances have really expanded to embrace alternative candidates and the present system may simply favour incumbency.

Well analyzed Kingston and Alyssa. The GDP to debt ration has significantly risen over the years. The biggest increase being the 2019-2020 where total debt (internal + external) climbed from 40%-49% also between 2012-2013. The government must refocus its attention to creative economy within the SME space involving all Papua New Guineans rather than rushing mega projects that may be detrimental for the growth of the economy.

This is a wonderful critique of those who want to place Pacific Island states in the western order of battle aimed at containing China. Great to see you Greg continuing to be conscience and critic! Cheers both, Kevin

I have finally got 148 ilgs declared through ministerial determination on 30 March 2022. More to come. What will Exxon Mobil and state tell me and my people why we were misled from the onset in the PNGLNG project.

Good article!

Jonathan, i have no comment for you but just appreciate you and your care. You are a wonderful person. I am also a candidate for seasonal job from solomon islands. I just wonder how some for us (relatives, friends, wantoks) already there and what they experience or facing right now. Some may be happy and some are just sad. Jonathan if had any vacant please give to me. I wish i should work for you or any one like you

Thank you for this astute and timely contribution. As Australian security concerns in this region intensify, we need a more nuanced and imaginative strategic narrative. The impulse to “shape” the region, while understandable from a Defence point of view, sets the wrong tone as it can undermine the task of listening and respectfully engaging with regional partners.

Hi Bal, Thanks for the comment. Don't quite understand your first sentence. Per the title, this is just evidence from Tonga and for sending households, and I think the design and what we can infer from these comparisons is pretty clear above. This paper here, which is Hiroshi's masters' thesis work in progress actually, doesn't use a worker survey, but I reported in an earlier blog an initial look at some household reporting of these figures, how much is sent, and so forth. There, you'll see the average worker appears to be sending back more than they would have earned before moving. Whether they have enough to "go beyond" very much depends on the characteristics of the household being supported and much more. In many cases though, it appears to be a matter of tastes and preferences (e.g., buying different and better things), as you'd probably expect, rather than a ladder of needs and wants. In terms of net fortnightly incomes before and after tax and deductions, we have a separate worker survey as part of the PLMS for workers from three countries in both Australia and New Zealand which has all this information, and we are in the process of contrasting the household and worker reports at the moment. These findings will all be detailed in a forthcoming report joint between the centre and the World Bank, in a few months, and of course some more detailed papers for journals. I have a separate project where we are looking at this at a higher frequency in Fiji, weekly, so a pretty rich picture for workers from four countries now. Cheers, Ryan

Thanks for this analysis, Madeleine. However, one political issue that always seems missing in the aid debate(s) is explicit support by the Foreign Minister for the results of our aid program. And regularly highlighting the positive outcomes. Not the "in principle" statements of the obvious, so beloved of politicians. Not trumpeting the annual dollar amounts in the aid budget. Especially – not going along to a recipient country and announcing the commencement of an Australian aid project. With many coloured pictures. The public debate about the merits of aid has moved on (slightly) from the "all aid is wasted" nonsense. But Foreign Ministers and not the "Minister for International Development" need – regularly – to publicise why aid is necessary, useful and achieves the reduction poverty in a recipient country. In my 36 years of lobbying on the benefits of Australia's aid, I have never heard a Minister say that.