Comments

"Friends to all" vis-a-vis China? This is just a garden variety of appeasement that recklessly ignores China's aggressive strategy and tactics. Pacific countries choose to ignore their biggest problem, population growth, and try to ride the Chinese dragon to boost their always short budgets, their second biggest problem. Such a naive approach will inevitably come a cropper, and then it will be up to Australia again to pick up the pieces. No thanks.

Rice is a relatively new crop in Timor Leste. A couple of generations ago maize was the staple grain crop. There is still a wonderful diversity of maize grown & observable in village markets. Yields are very low, but nutrition is not bad. It is no coincidence that in the highlands, it is not uncommon for some elders to live past 100 years old. These people were raised on maize, not rice. Will the life expectancy of the younger generations be as high? Obviously there are a log of factors involved, but a switch to higher-yielding rice may have a detrimental effect.

IF Digicel PNG monopoly represents a significant component of the US$1.6 billion purchase of Digicel Pacific by the Australian Government and Telstra, then the PNG Government must stop the sale and ask Digicel and Telstra to come to a round table talk to consider PNG's issues and how will this change benefit the PNG Government and the common people. I'm sure Digicel will be too happy to leave very quickly because they have already recovered and ripped the benefits and not wanting to remain and face China. Mr Stephen Howes said the Australian Government must not promote monopoly in the Pacific but to put an end to it by promoting good business relationships through fair competition. This is just what is needed in PNG. Some issues still on the PNG Government agenda are lower internet rates, control over pornography via internet, lower call rates, high interest on call credits, free access to TV broadcast, etc. Now is the time to talk.

Good morning, I would like to get in touch with Anton Lutz to present him our new study book "Kamap fri long Posin na Sanguma". Can I get an email address of Mr Lutz, please?

Excellent post Akito. Thanks for sharing your insights, particularly focusing on the way Covid-19 has impacted rural communities such as Poros. Andrew New Zealand

Have you seen any malnourished and skinny looking Papua New Guinean? No I don't think you saw one. There are varieties of abundant fresh vegetables right across the country,banana, sweet and English Potatos, taro, yam, greens, fruits and many more. We are not like most African countries, India, Bangladesh, Pakistan where the food supply is low. Besides Papua New Guinean eat only two main meals, breakfast and dinner. However we do eat varieties of fruits, sugar cane and sometimes heavy meals during the day. No one goes without food in this country except they choose to fast.

Hi John, While there are some additional aspects of the PLS that might impact thinking about this question, the main reasons are generally similar to why PNG is also not particularly well represented in the SWP. Richard and Stephen look at this in their big SWP governance report here https://devpolicy.org/publications/reports/Governance_SWP_2020_WEB.pdf You might also be interested to join this presentation this month https://devpolicy.org/events/event/8000-seasonal-workers-by-2025-from-png-20211117/ I understand both PNG and Australia are working hard to increase PNG participation in both schemes. Best wishes, Ryan

Thanks Albert, Candidate numbers are certainly correlated with MP re-election rates. This seems to be true if we're talking about numbers of candidates in the election in question (David Hegarty's old finding, which Maho and I have confirmed with more recent data too) and also on average, in all elections excluding the current one, which is the finding presented in this blog/paper. The possible explanations why are, I think, quite interesting. The Ministerial power variable may well indicate departmental resources being diverted to electorates. However, the other explanation that Colin covers in the discussion paper, which is also an interesting possibility, is that the type of person well-suited to maneuvering themselves into a ministerial portfolio may also be the type of person well-suited to the hard task of winning elections. Thanks again for engaging on this. Terence

Maintaining COMMS tower in a rugged terrain country is an expensive exercise in terms of ferrying of fuel by road, shipping, long line airlift and tracking. Together with Genset power, solar system maintenance and land rents, Telstra may consider true value of cost and charges in PNG. Most sites, the equipment on power generation has reached maximum change out hours by now since installation, and Telstra may run into an expensive exercise paid by the people of PNG.

A most timely analysis for the 2022 election. As I see it, the process seems mostly random with higher number of competitors determining chances of an incumbent losing his (not her) seat. The Ministerial power variable seems to indicate substantial amount of departmental resources are diverted for electoral purposes.

This is my response to Prof. Martin Davies, in regard to section 10.4 of The Path to Kina Convertibility: 1. Gold price fluctuations in the global market can be regulated by BPNG to benefit PNG economy under a fixed convertibility exchange rate system where gold is kept as foreign reserve. In this sense, when gold prices drop, the Central Bank can withhold the gold as reserves. On the contrary, when the prices are scaling up again, then they can trade gold for more US Dollars to offset foreign exchange shortages. China and Malaysia have made use of capital control measures during the 1997 Asian Financial Crisis under a fixed exchange rate system to safeguard their economy from massive capital ouflows from afftecting their exchange rates unlike their counterparts like Indonesia, South Korea, Thailand, Philippines, etc. And Gold is compatible under a fixed exchange rate system. Therefore, gold price fluctuations can be controlled with a right monetary and exchange rate policy setting. 2. I agree with you on this point as gold reserve will require a specialized high security storage facility with ongoing costs of security and maintenance. Nonetheless, the geographical location of the existing Central Bank/BPNG makes it difficult for bank robbery. Also, gold bullions are so heavy to carry and flee unlike Fiat currency notes. The BSP Robbery at downtown POM near BPNG some couple of years ago has ended up in futility as the suspects were apprehended. Some were shot and died. Hence, your number 2 point is unlikely to occur but if it does, still the suspects will be caught by police. 3. Transactions costs are part of normal business operations when converting gold into US Dollars. That point can be rulled out. 4. I disagree strongly with your last point. According to Dr. Judy Shelton, one of former US President Donald Trump's economic advisor, "It was the gold link that bolstered the dollar's legitimacy as a reserve currency; it was the gold link that implicitly supported the international system of fixed exchange rates. Gold has been shown to retain its purchasing power over long intervals - indeed, over centuries." (The IMF and its Barbarous Relic, Cato Journal, p. 509) With that in mind, the Central Bank Act 2000, Section 7, paragraph a, stipulates that BPNG must formulate and implement monetary policy with a view to achieving and maintaining price stability. Since year 2001 up until now, monetary and exchange rate policies of succeeding PNG regimes has not achieve price stability as enshrined in the central banking act 2000. For e.g. UPNG School Fees for tuition alone was K600 flat across both Waigani and Taurama Campus. Now, its K3000+ Kina for tuition fee alone. Air Niugini flight fare was K900 from Port Moresby to Darwin Australia. Now its K3108. 10kg rice bag was K12.92 in 2001. Now its K37. And the list goes on and on if I would continue. PNG Kina was pegged to Australian Dollars in the past. It was floated and devalued twice, and now its narrowly pegged to USD. Hence, I strongly suggest we innovate by pegging it to gold through building gold bullion reserves to counter the steady inflation trend in the country as I stated above because current and previous monetary and exchange rate policies have failed miserably to achieve and maintain price stability as enshrined in the central banking act 2000. I will answer your other 2 points in regard to foreign held debt and inflation later. Thank you for the critical comments earlier on.

So true!