Comments

Thank you for the opportunity and Government Australia

Hello I have 2 questions: 1. I noticed there were information session for Papua New Guineans in Port Moresby and Mt Hagen. Do we have one for Lae? Appreciate if you can advice. 2. The ballot for PEV will close on the 2nd of August 2024 - Please if you can advice when is the draw for the ballot?

It has always intrigued me about how the media in Papua New Guinea always become a mouthpiece for Jerry Singirok. I am beginning to question both the National and Post Courier plus others who always seem to promote JS and sway public opinion in PNG to favor him are paid to promote his PR. If one has to independently verify the authenticity of things he claims, it is very easy to disprove. For example, the idea that there would be mass murder in Bougainville is just ridiculous. PNG is a member of the UN and Julius Chan plus his cabinet would be subjected to criminal charges by internal courts like the ICC. Also, Tim Spicer is a British Professional Soldier and British Army Standards apply to his conduct even though is may be considered a mercenary. Britain will hold him accountable if he is a British citizen as both countries are Commonweath. Most things which he had been claiming are very questionable if one has to challenge his position on these, there could have been external political actors as well pulling the rope behind his actions and demands to destabilize the government at the time. One can also argue this was military coup in disguise as the only people to change a government are the citizens of Papua New Guinea through a democratic vote. Not some random people in Port Moresby who pretend to represent the democratic will of the entire nation and protest in front of the parliament to have a prime ministerial change just because of x, y z... What JS did was a precedent we see happening now in PNG where if there is failure of some sort to the disciplinary forces either the PNGDF or Police or any other disciplinary forces may not agree with, they will use force to achieve their ambitions. 2 clears examples, the 2006 parliamentary damage, 2024 rampage in Port Moresby and other minor ones that have not really caught media attention, it is all happening now. I believe if this was in other robust democratic nations in the world, the treatment for JS if properly prosecuted by the laws of the state, it will be a totally different outcome and when public opinion shifts, it won't be the same.

Natasha, Generally, you have covered this subject pretty well, thank you!

Well said and that is the normal culture up in the highlands, especially the four highlands Provinces, WHP, ENGA, SHP AND HELA. There needs to be some strong measures in place to tighten up the in flow of ammunition. If the ammunition is closely monitored then I believe the guns are gonna be useless in the long run. I think that's going to be the best option for long lasting peace and also to minimize the progress of creating problems. Thanks.

Hi Carolyn, Very good read. I have witnessed vast sums wasted by international agencies who seem to think a rotation role inn a SID is a sabbatical. Spend money badly in the wrong place with little DD, move on to the next SID, rinse and repeat. Private enterprise needs to be involved with tangible long term social, economic and environmental gains being clearly identified and measured against funding agreements. The sooner the current all care no responsibility branding exercise of the global agency groups is managed back, the sooner funding will see improved outcomes. Regards

In Canberra, we have two cafes (in Curtin and Duffy) that sell both the beans grown in the PNG highlands and a cup of coffee made from them. It's direct action that supports those growers. It's also excellent coffee.

Hi Jamie. Thank you for your interest in the Pacific Attitudes Survey. The data gap we were refer to here is related to international popular political attitudes surveys. Notably, the Global Barometer regularly conducts similar surveys in all global regions, except the Pacific. With the PAS we aim to bridge this gap, so that Pacific voices can be heard in these international conversations. As you'll see in the full report, the PAS: Vanuatu was conducted in partnership and co-authored with the National University of Vanuatu and the University of the South Pacific Emalus campus. Partnership activities included survey design and translation workshops, which included the Vanuatu Kaljoral Senta and other Vanuatu civil society organisations. The VNSO generously provided national census data for our sampling. PAS data will be available online shortly and can certainly be used to help inform national policy formulation and responses to SDGs. See the PAS webpage for further information https://bellschool.anu.edu.au/dpa/our-research-dpa/pacific-attitudes-survey

Hi Nik, good to hear from you! I like your comment and would love to learn more about the "nonsense" including the role played by tourism in the economy of Vanuatu and Samoa. It'd be even better if you could write us some blogs 🙂 That would be very helpful to improve the quality of my economic analysis.

Hi Paul. Thanks for the comment and analysis. It is helpful to get these results for comparison and I am interested in looking further into this. Your approach probably fits the Pacific better, but we opted for purchasing power parity for global comparisons. But as you and Nik point out, the key message from this blog is to emphasize the importance of holding data accountable to facts. Admittedly, international comparisons of economic performance through time are difficult. Therefore, it is important that people can keep in mind the difficulties and limitations to interpret data in a more sensible way.

A colleague pointed out that FSM is listed as Micronesia in the WEO database (why did I miss that?). Anyway, doing the same calculations on national currency GDP - increase of 16.8%, converted into real terms to allow for CPI average inflation - 14.6% - and then population loss of 3.1%, FSM/Micronesia ends up at -1.3%. This is considerably lower than the +1.2% in the article - so FSM joins Solomon Islands and Tonga doing considerable worse with a different methodology. As Nik suggests, at best, there is indeed a need for important caveats when making comparisons. There are huge challenges as highlighted by the article - PNG has had a major revision in its population estimates. Hopefully, the current census will shed some light on the actual population. Worth remembering that in 2018, PNG's National Statistics Office did a recalculation of PNG's GDP. For 2006, this led a to a 50% increase in measured GDP in 2006. As an economic historian, just makes analysis of economic performance through time difficult.

International comparisons of economic performance through time are difficult. This article appropriately focuses on Timor-Leste's non-oil economy performance. The same logic can also be applied to PNG's non-resource economy, as once again, the resource sector is primarily foreign-owned with the primary impacts coming through resource revenues, which are captured in non-resource GDP anyway. The Purchasing Power Parity calculations are also vexed, especially for economies with large resource sectors. My preference when trying to measure changes in living standards is to look at real disposable household incomes - my interpretation of the outcomes of the 2009 Stiglitz-Sen-Fitoussi “Report by the Commission on the Measurement of Economic Performance and Social Progress.” For PNG, this is best done by taking nominal growth in non-resource GDP, discounting by the Consumer Price Index, and dividing by population growth. Over this four-year period, PNG's non-resource economy grew by 39.8%, inflation grew by 18%, and population assumed to grow by 11.6% (using the 2020 IMF base and growing by 3% a year). The overall result was an improvement in living standards in PNG of 6.2% over this period - an average of 1.5%. When using the same methodology for other countries above (although I could not see FSM in the WEO database I downloaded), the average annual rates were as follows: Palau -6.4%, Solomon Islands -4.4%, Timor-Leste -3.8% (based on the article, and as local currency GDP was used, this is probably non-oil), Vanuatu -3.8%, Samoa -3.3%, Tonga -2.3%, Tuvalu -1.5%, Fiji -0.3%, Kiribati +1.4%, PNG +1.5%, Nauru +1.7% and RMI +1.7%. Some quite significant variations, with Solomon Islands and Tonga doing considerably worse, and PNG and RMI doing considerably better. I repeat the opening sentence.