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It is an excellent analysis. A lucrative contract awarded to a relatively small and unknown company to provide security and other services to a highly sensitive international human rights case in Manus has a lot to say. Many learned persons along the corridors of powers in PNG and Australia and even many analysists understand the many reasons why such an arrangement is done to make it look more legitimate. In any case, doing it to appease others in authority at the expense of human rights is not the right strategy to undertaken. The PNG PM’s Chief Secretary writing to Paladin Company for a donation of K20 million to PNC Party at the eve of vote of non-confidence in PNG Parliament says a lot, drawing back to why and how the initial contract was awarded. PNG PM’s office may be in the knowing as well.

As our Pacific partners continue to feel the impact of climate change, Caritas Australia is urging the federal government to focus on stronger Australian climate policies, funding to help our Pacific neighbours adapt to climate change, and grassroots aid.

Hi Luke, Good to hear from you. I'll be in Wellington in early May if you're about. The 'how' question is the big one, I agree. In OECD countries patronage politics was put paid to by the rise of social movements which then became political movements. (At least that's my slightly simplified read of the history.) Broad political movements can overcome many of the collective action problems which make clientelism otherwise inevitable I think. So, the rise of such movements would seem a pathway for Solomons. The trouble is (a) not all social movements are positive & (b) it took industrial revolutions to bring such social change to Europe. Which begs the question, given industrial revolutions aren't on their way to small island states any time soon, what might have a similar transformative effect? Plausibly, social media? Plausibly new cohorts of the middle class studying together and becoming the building blocks of new social movements? Or plausibly something different. I can't say for certain. But there is an appetite for change, which is encouraging, hence my final sentence, which I'll concede is part prediction and part aspiration. Looking forwards to talking more. Terence

Thanks for the blog Terence. You mention that "one day all of this will change" - what I am most interested in is 'how'?

It is very important to keep the heat on this outrageous sum of money for a less than laudable outcome, and with a less than transparent process. A factoid that needs to be known by the Australian public, is that this single contract, which will not benefit one human in PNG, is about the same sum as the whole Aid budget Australia now spends on PNG. The health system in PNG could benefit immensley from targeted programs with Australian support, but money which could have saved and improved a large number of lives, will now line the pocket of a single life in well-off Australia.

Thanks Chris and sepo for your kind comments. Chris, I agree: CDFs are definitely a double edged sword. This is likely why the incumbent turnover rate remained nearly 50% in most of the elections after the CDFs were introduced. And yet, in 2014 incumbents did remarkably well. Candidate numbers provide some cause to think they will do so again this year (although see caveats in the article). If it turns out CDFs have suddenly become a single-edged sword all of a sudden, the interesting question will be why? (The boring answer might be that they've become so large even inept MPs can use them effectively.) I also agree: outsiders miss the micro-politics most of the time. This is why we're left using blunt instruments such as candidate numbers (which reflect the micro-politics) when we try and make predictions. It will be a very interesting election. Thanks for your comment.

Thanks for encapsulating the realities and challenges faced by nations and development partners regarding bolstering grassroot economic activities through market access, training and so forth. I totally agree that in cautioning against 'market-based interventions, while delivering promising results, often have too narrow a focus on macro forces and are targeted too high at a system-level change, and in the process, they can neglect to build the productive capacity of the most marginalized so that they can participate in markets. As development practitioners, we must ensure that those currently excluded from the market system are not, at the end of the project, still excluded from a market system with improved functionality." We have seen shortfalls in many development projects and part of the problem lies with what you have identified above. Our company Skyeye Ltd is due to launch a Digital marketplace for Samoa in July 2019. We have come to the table to offer a tool that all participants across industries can utilize to gain great market access complete with an online payment gateway and transportation service provision. The system is designed to be inclusive to raise the level of financial independence for women, youth and persons with disability. Whilst our goal is clear cut, we are finding ourselves in dialogue with development agencies and the public sector to help fill the gaps in areas that have been overlooked and neglected in the hope to empower players at all levels to bring their supply to the table and operate as businesses in their own right. So much to be said but I'll stop here for now. Thanks again for sharing. *Skyeye Ltd won the GSMA Australian Aid Award with a project submission - MAUA.

Visa and migration for small countries are better and economical.

Constituency Development Funds are a two-edged sword - they can work against against an incumbent who uses them badly or indiscriminately,and challengers can make a great deal of promises. The micro-politics of each constituency (and polling stations) are very complex and largely hidden from view of outsiders - and thus making electoral prediction inherently difficult. Always a pleasure reading such clear and concise analysis, Terence.

Earlier this week the Post Courier and The National newspapers published reports that the Petroleum Minister Dr Fabian Pok had signed the ministerial determination for the landowner beneficiary lists for PDL1 and PDL7. The signing took place at Para Primary School for PDL7 and Yuni for PDL1 landowners on 9 March. The Mineral Resources Development Corporation (administrator of the landowner beneficiary trusts) will shortly be visiting PDL1 and 7 to assist beneficiary landowners to open bank accounts for receiving their benefit payments. At the signing Hela Governor Philip Undialu said ‘I will talk to Bank South Pacific to open branch or agency or have ATM machines in Hides PDL7 and PDL for people to access their cash component of the benefits.’ All the people involved, Minister Pok, Governor Undialu, other Ministers and MPs, Department of Petroleum personnel, landowner leaders and the thousands of beneficiaries are to be congratulated on cooperating to bring to an end an extraordinary and unnecessarily long period of uncertainty and confusion. That the long years of waiting gave rise to feelings of frustration and anger is very understandable. That so many people have now put these feelings behind them and moved towards the future earns my respect. The National reported on 14 March that Chief Justice Sir Gibbs Salika intends to strengthen the Village Court system. The Village Courts have shown that they have the capacity to breathe life into the PNG Constitution by addressing issues such as the rights of citizens, gender equality and fairness and joining these large issues with customary practices at the base level of the village. Broadening and deepening the capacity of the Village Courts will make a substantial contribution to law and development in PNG. Vailala

Excellent analysis. The point can be extended to Fiji where, although there is no Australian `Gulag' the desperation to rebuild relatons with the Bainimarama government is stalling further political reforms to what is a limited militarised democracy. At the recent election, Australian officials were seen by opposition parties as little more than cheerers for the government, including when aid programs are easily coopted as government programs.

Readers of this note by Stephen Howes and the subsequent comments may be interested in previous writings on the state of UPNG: http://www.pmc.aut.ac.nz/articles/good-and-bad-aid-pacific-tale-two-universities and here http://www.pmc.aut.ac.nz/articles/destroying-capacity-cautionary-tale-papua-new-guinea and allan patience here http://johnmenadue.com/allan-patience-the-serious-under-development-of-papua-new-guineas-university-system/ . For more than a decade people with actual undergraduate teaching experience at UPNG have been analysing and calling for reforms to PNG's tertiary education system. While it is welcome that the spotlight is now on UPNG, the problem is much deeper than corruption and disputes over senior appointments. The malaise began in the 1980s and will not be corrected by a bit of tinkering with these processes. The focus on such matters as the VC and Council now draws attenton away from the real crisis, that undergraduate education in PNG is of such a low general standard that the effects permeate all education in the country and many other aspects of the society.