Comments

Thanks for the concise summary Michael. Having travelled to Dili in 2015 for some Diving, I can attest to the potential Timor has in regards to tourism. Without knowing too much locally about the Timorese economy, Gov regulation and monopolies, I would also hazard a guess that the issues facing TL also include: - No access/supply for budget airlines from either Australia or Malaysia. As discussed: https://asia.nikkei.com/Life-Arts/Life/East-Timor-tourism-remains-stuck-in-the-slow-lane2 -Lack of coordinated social media/influencer led campaigns to expose Timor.

We have been involved with 'East Timor' since before independence and my partner was very involved so we had a commitment to spend our Xmas holidays there 2 years ago. It was a very expensive 3 weeks and we travelled from Dili to the town of the Balibo 5 to Jako Island, stayed in beautiful Pousadas. It is a beautiful country and it was very special to be there for Christmas experiencing local simple celebrations and beautiful hymns by local church groups, and we are not even Christians. There are many who just could not afford a holiday in Timor, the US$ makes it a very expensive trip and everything is more expensive than even in Australia including the one hour flight from Darwin to Dili. To go to Jako Island the self-drive car hire was US$180 per day, in Bali hiring a car is around AUD$40 - so cost is one of the main reasons, and lack of services to support tourists is the other reason.

And dont forget that prices for flights from Dili to Bali have tripled from around $100 USD to over $300 USD for 1 way ..one of the most expensive flights per KM in the region!

I have an issue with the use of Wikipedia as well similar to Teddy Win.

Great post! It will definitely be interesting to have a look if there is a link between the settlers of Pacific island background and Australia's "soft power" in the region. One thing is for sure, China is going in strong and looking for all kinds of opportunities to fund and aid projects in all industries in the island nations, and there are now many Chinese families that are moving into the islands and starting businesses or taking over businesses. I guess it is kind of similar to what is happening in Australia. A major worry is what will happen to all the Chinese assistance/funding of many government projects other than the obvious outcomes of the deals with the Pacific island governments. What will be the ultimate price that the Pacific island countries would pay for all the money, investments and assistance they are receiving from China?? While Australia and New Zealand continue their great assistance to the Pacific island regions, the majority of the migration routes are via NZ for many of the Pacific islanders wanting to settle in Australia. It is very rare for families from Samoa or Tonga to migrate directly to Australia. Families from Fiji, Vanuatu, Solomon islands, PNG, and Kiribati, at rare occurrences do migrate directly to Australia. There are very few opportunities for families from Polynesian countries to migrate to Australia. I think this should be the first step, to look at how Australian migration policies can allow for migration directly from the islands. Perhaps a quota system similar to the one used by the NZ government. This will strengthen the link primarily as families migrate to Australia and help out their families back in the islands. I mean there are many opportunities given to migrants from China, India, UK and European countries to move, work and settle in Australia but very little direct opportunities for Pacific islanders who are right next door. WHY IS THIS???? Even scholarships offered by AusAID to Australia have diminished greatly over the years; now there's only about 1-5 that come every year whereas China would take about 20-50 per year. There is definitely under reporting in the Census - some Pacific families would identify themselves as New Zealanders, as they hold NZ citizenship, and may not necessarily go further to identify themselves as Pacific islanders.

Thanks James, Great comment. I don't doubt you're right, the lion's share of the RAMSI spend would have fallen under the category of governance. (As an aside: I was curious how much of that went to policing, and wanted to give you a more data intensive response here, but I've just wasted an hour on the OCED's CRS website trying to workout how much of the RAMSI spend went on policing, before giving up in frustration.) The end of RAMSI, however, didn't have to necessitate a fall in governance spending. Much of the work started under RAMSI in a range of sectors was handed over to the bilateral aid program. There's clearly a need for better governance in Solomons. A governance focus, albeit with less emphasis on security, could still be at the centre of Australian aid work in Solomons. Indeed, in 2017 governance was still the largest sector by a clear margin (see link below). This will no longer be the case. I don't think that's a bad thing per se, but I do think the best approach moving forwards would be driven by a combination of need, what other donors are doing, and likelihood of success. My guess is that we're probably not in disagreement on that? And my end I'm very happy to acknowledge the importance of RAMSI's impact on sectoral spending. Thanks again. Terence Those interested Australian spending by sector in Solomon Islands over time can see the chart here: https://twitter.com/terencewoodnz/status/1135319281032355840/photo/1 which is based on OECD CRS data.

Can PNG become richest black nation within 10 years? Nation, sure. People, no. Given huge Papua "New Guinea" resources, almost as vast as "West" Papua, tax haven status will no doubt be used, misused and abused exactly the same as other tax havens - to enable massive corruption. https://www.theguardian.com/australia-news/2019/jun/21/manus-island-to-become-corporate-tax-free-zone-says-png-prime-minister Amazing how quickly a tax law came up with the new government, after years of criticising the old government for endless corruption. Astonishing that DevPolicy published this article, referring to top tax-havens in its list, without actually spelling that out. Disappointing.

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Terence - thanks for an interesting piece. The heavy emphasis on governance spending by Australia between 2003 and 2014 presumably reflects the costs of the RAMSI commitment (particularly but not only on the policing side). With the wind down and then conclusion of RAMSI in 2017 we should not be surprised to see a fall off in spending under the broad heading of governance since then, and a return to a more balanced portfolio.

One comment as a postscript to this. I was intending to write solely about aid, but at a colleague's suggestion I included a line on labour mobility, which is important. However, thinking about it now, if I was going to include policy options other than those directly associated with aid I should have also included climate change, obviously. This is crucial for the Pacific -- not just sea level rise but also broader changes in weather patterns. Any donor country government that is failing to take serious action on climate change is failing the people of the Pacific. Climate change will be change, but of the worst possible sort.

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