Comments

Malo Tess Thank you again for your insightful comments, My predictions are more economic in focus and include PACER negotiations meandering along, the battles and tensions to protect local producers and companies vs policies to reduce trade and business barriers - the ADB/IMF imperatives, the consequences of TPP for the nations IN the region, the massive investment drives into the region by the Asean countries (high tech outputs, low rates of local labour), lack of leadership on regional transport and freight issues, declining national pacific populations (+brain drain). I think these will set the parameters for growth in the region, with the political issues you mention, for years to come... Manuia le tausaga fou

Hi Abel, thank you for reading and commenting. It would be most interesting to learn more about the impacts of climatic change (both short and long term) across the different districts and the coping strategies employed by local populations. Look forward to catching up soon!

Two observations: It's quite uncanny how similar Steven looks to his ALP predecessor, Richard Marles; and wouldn't it be nice oneday if we have an aid Parl Sec (or better still, Minister) who had some sort of background in aid.

Paul some good questions there. Yes we may hope that PNG will evolve over time to be better than it is now. Sam Koim stands as an encouragement. However that is not to downplay the fact that PNG should have learned from others (countries) that have gone before her. The recent events worryingly suggests that the fight against corruption may not be a priority among the political elites - or to rather, it is more in words than action.

Hi Jonathan, Coming from the Cook Islands, it's striking the number of Cook Islanders living in Australia and New Zealand (around 60,000 in the latter alone). A key reason for this accessing better opportunity and wages through use of the New Zealand passport - the ultimate in Australasian labour mobility. From my own research, the trend towards Australia has been a relatively recent one, with increasing numbers of Cook Islanders born in New Zealand now moving to Australia as part of a broader 'go west' drift. I suspect the growing income gap between Australia and New Zealand is to blame, as well as labour shortages in some industries, but I haven't looked into the matter in any real detail*. For Cook Islanders anyway, community is of the utmost cultural importance, and the integrity of the family unit is highly valued (as it is in almost any culture). The NZ passport means that whole family units can move, and where a community forms others will follow in greater numbers. I therefore suspect that migration to Australia (for Cook Islanders anyway) will accelerate as the Australian-based communities grow. I also suspect that our Polynesian neighbours (Samoa and Tonga) have similar aspects to their culture, as demostrated in the large Polynesian communities living in Auckland and Hamilton. James *As an aside: this has significant ramifications for the tiny Cook Islands population (around 15,000), which is likely to continue to suffer drain across all labour types, not to mention the intergenerational issues of cultural degradation (for example: only a fraction of Cook Islanders born overseas (myself included) can speak Cook Island Maori).

Damn scary, and rather different to Julie Bishop's Dec 15 forecast: "huge revenues are going to be coming into PNG". May I contact you for further background? cheers, John

It sounds like developing groundwater supplies and food storage would improve living standards.

Thank you Pyone. This is a very interesting article and I can relate to the story. I'm in Timor now, hope to catch up with you one day 🙂

hope that international policies can take on a role of greater responsibility of the political powers of the least developed countries in the future

Thanks Terence. I think these comparisons are very useful as they serve to give some context to these policy decisions. Australia has the sixth lowest debt/GNI of the 28 OECD donors, but will have the 19th least generous aid program once these cuts are implemented.

Very interesting article thanks Anthony. Given that the government deficit is a product of government decisions about revenue and spending, and that we are a very wealthy country, I don't think that the argument the Government makes about debt and aid is relevant at all. However given that aid appears to be taking huge cuts because of the debt situation, wouldn't it be fairer if the cuts were proportionate to aid's contribution to total government spending? This year aid makes up 1.2% of Australian Government expenditure and would still be only 2% of expenditure if our Government met its promise to provide 0.5% of GNI in aid. How about we meet our 0.5% commitment by 2017-18, but deduct from this the 2% of total Government interest payments that aid could be said to generate? MYEFO 2014 estimates total interest payments at around $14 bn in 17/18 - so aid's share would be around $280m. Wouldn't that be a fairer way to reconcile our budget imbalance and our promises to the world's poor?

Stephen, Jonathan, Robin in particular and the whole team - thanks for another year of stimulating commentary. Based on the events of the very recent past, 2015 already looks to be shaping up as delivering much content warranting debate. Wishing everyone a safe and happy holiday season.