Comments

Good to see 2015 budget to meet the development aspirations. From past experiences the stereotypical image of public sector bureaucracies in PNG is one of the bloated payrolls and inefficient, corrupt, even indolent behavior. The budget expenditures must be focused on economic growth and development. Recurrent outlays on education and health for example, are investments in human capital that can have major long-term benefits. Wages and salaries constitute a large fraction of the recurrent outlays of government but nothing feasible and tangible is shown on the ground. We can realize economic growth and development and change our living standard if our budget expenditure is focused on setting up institutions, incentives, capital investment, human capital, technological knowledge and that implies growth.

It's a great thing you are doing out there. I believe, as an educated elites, we need to start at our homes, families, tribes, and up to the nation as a whole. The root of all issues are at home....we need to go back to save this beautiful nation.

Interesting analysis - which basically once again highlights the fact that Pacific aid and the measures chosen to establish its effectiveness are fundamentally the playthings of statisticians. You would think that the question of which donors are the biggest and most important players in the Pacific would be straight forward enough to establish? Think again. The PDI illustrates this conundrum. But any list of players in the Pacific that does not have the US, France, EU, Japan and China right up there with Australia and NZ is basically flawed. An awful lot hinges on how one defines the categories used to measure donor assistance. And suffice it to say that ODA is not the only category that is relevant.

Is it wise for the NEC to mortgage the future LNG revenue on an investment that in all respect is speculative and subject to market forces? Or should it mortgage LNG revenues in investments that have a proven potential to increase the generational credit worthiness of PNG, such as investment in free education, health and infrastructure facilities. What worries me is the burden that such reckless spending of public funds bring upon the future generation who are innocent and have no knowledge nor play any active part in making decisions on where and how the LNG revenue should be spent. The complete disregard by the NEC to comply with the procedural requirements for obtaining such loans is noted with great concern. PNG leaders must know that their actions have wide and long ranging implications on the lives and livelihoods of every individual Papua New Guineans, particularly the poor and destitute who are struggling each day to make ends meet.

Very interesting analysis Jonathan. As you say the comparison with other donors outside the region is probably not very useful. The Commitment to Development Index highlights many of the key areas that are important in supporting development and I think it is very useful at a global level. However perhaps the CDI should just be a guide for a Pacific Index which might also examine additional policy areas of greater local relevance and have more appropriate performance indicators under each area.

Carmen, your story is worth reading.

Dennis, As part of my final year thesis for my My Major Research Paper, I'm interested in writing about the need for a more viable and proactive National policy approach on the subject on Municipal solid waste management, given that NCD is the first to pioneer with its waste management policy. Would really appreciate your input on the viability on other alternative waste management practices that is cost-effective in the long run as well as environmentally friendly, such as the project that you are initiating. i can be reached on my email nebanisam@gmail.com kind regards Ben

Carmen, thanks for your lovely insights. I agree that PNG gets a very bad wrap because of POM and parts of the Highlands where tribalism is rampant. One forward looking leader is Hon. Anderson Agiru from Southern Highlands. His message is consistent, plain and bold. "You keep fighting tribal wars, then don't come and ask me for compensation." I grew up in POM (my Mother tongue is Motu). I've been in a lot of places in PNG. Even remote villages in Goroka, and the Gulf and tiny Islands like Malie in New Ireland Province. Life goes on. People in 'rural' places have products to sell, fish and game to catch and children to feed. What happens in Port Moresby, or other parts of the country, in a 24 hr cycle, is of no direct significance to them.They look after their land. I'm not bragging, but I had seen most of the world by the time I was 23. I have lived, travelled and worked in a lot of places! Once, in Sardinia, my taxi driver told me that his island was not Lebanon or Damascus! Go figure. Yes, I've walked Kokoda, Berlin, Buenos Aires, Amman, Harlem, Cairo, Sofia, and Aiwo in Nauru too. They had their risks. I caught the same bus as Kofi Annan to the UN most mornings from Roosevelt Island,NYC without private security. Thank God, nothing happened. I have used common sense. Well, well, my house got burgled in Suva, but all they got was my Cuban and Pacific CDs and my leather jacket! I lived in "Domain" on Ratu Sukuna Rd, two minutes walk from town. I moved from Fiji to Cairns, Australia. After 5 years, my two cars got stolen outside my yard in the City! Damn, I thought I was in a civilized world. Crime happens everywhere. In Cairns, a guy just dissolved his partner in acid thinking he could get away with intentional murder. Is Cairns still safe and touristic? Yes, yes, Yes. I look outside my house in POM in the morning, and see mums and dads taking their children to school, hoping that they get a good education and succeed in life. I wish things could be less expensive and tougher in this city. I now work in PNG (with Carmen), and the one big contrast with PNG and other developing and developed countries is that elsewhere I have lived, 'you do the crime, you do the time.' Sadly, in PNG, this is still not evidently so, and the Good Samaritans, that Melanesians are known for, seem too afraid to help others in trouble, because of the psyche they grow up with in this city, and come to accept that it's the norm, so as to survive another day. But they are there, plentiful, the PNGean that is a proud landowner, hard-working, happy, peaceful and kind. They need to turn the tide, so that the fences and Walls, like the Australian fortress at Konedobu, (Ozcatraz), near to where I grew up with my aunt, with a small wire fence, expat neighbours, a mango tree, a cricket ball, and no crime - can eventually come down. Sadly, I doubt this will happen very soon. Perhaps. Adam

It's always good to be aware of movements in various trade metrics as they provide an indication of underlying changes in the economy relative to other countries or the region. However, in my view they are not an end in themselves and need to be accompanied with an explanation of what is happening within the domestic economy (relative to other economies). Furthermore, I'm hesitant to describe these trade metrics as a measure of "performance" because when presented in isolation it is hard ascertain how they relate to the underlying performance of the economy. Here are a few explanations for each of your 4 findings: (1) Export volumes have not increased in recent years due to production problems at Ok Tedi (both in terms of falling grade and throughput), the devastation to the cocoa industry from the cocoa pod borer, the impact of dutch disease (currency appreciation, property boom in POM, and skill shortages) on the domestic economy resulting from the investment phase of the PNG LNG project, and the focus of the PNG national government on facilitating the PNG LNG project, potentially at the expense of other green-field investments. All of these issues, apart from Ok Tedi, are likely to be resolved soon, and of course the impact of LNG shipments on exports will be huge. (2) PNG's falling share of world exports doesn't mean much since growth in world trade in large part reflects trade in intermediate goods (and so is a poor measure of the change in income/value added) but PNG's exports are almost pure value added. Apples are being compared with oranges here at least in terms of any inference on performance. (3) The trade to GDP ratio may fall due to an increase in the size of the domestic economy and so is not necessarily a bad thing - eg. the US has a much smaller trade to GDP ratio simply because its domestic economy is so strong. Whether this explanation applies to PNG or instead reflects export problems mentioned above or increased barriers to imports needs further investigation. (4) It would be good to complement this point with say simulations of different commodity prices (reflecting historical variation) on GDP to see how much impact a high level of concentration might have on the economy. I’m sure there are other factors I haven’t mentioned here which would complement this piece.

Here here Diane! And thank you Carmen for your fair account. As a PNG ples mangi who's lived in New Zealand and now Australia, I miss home and given the chance would return in a heartbeat. I look forward to reading about the outcomes of your work there. All the best, laikim.

If cheaper fights were offered from Australia then Timor Leste might see more tourists.

I loved my time in Papua New Guinea. I went prawn trawling on my friends trawler for 11 days in Gulf Of Papua off Kerema. I visited Bougainville in 1980 and helped with a Pidgin Radio broadcast on Radio Kalang. I visited many wonderful places from Vanimo to Rabaul, Mendi, Lae, Mt Hagen and along the Papuan coast. The place was truly uplifting for the warmth of the people once you were trusted by Papua New Guineans as a person there to help and not just chase the dollar. I was married while I was there and 3 of my kids were born at POMGH Maternity ward. I am still in touch with a number of my friends there after not being in PNG for 24 years. It really is an amazing place and yes I have seen the worst of it but still hold my time there dearly.